Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget places a strong emphasis on mobilizing private capital, positioning public-private investment as a central driver of Canada’s economic growth.
The plan leverages co-investments and a mix of incentives to draw institutional capital off the sidelines and into nation-building projects in critical minerals, clean technology, and infrastructure. Anthony Messina, president and head of private wealth at Guardian Partners Inc., sees renewed resilience in the “Made-in-Canada” economy and a clearer path forward as the Carney government prioritizes sovereignty, productivity, and long-term prosperity.
“The recent federal budget saw the government making investments — or co-investments — with many companies in Canada, focusing on resources, mining, and materials,” he said, noting these are areas in which Canada already excels.
He added that the government’s recent actions, including a uranium export deal with India and investments in the Darlington small-modular nuclear reactor, signal stronger federal engagement with the business community.
A cornerstone of the budget is a proposed $2B, five-year investment in Natural Resources Canada to create a Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund. The fund would accelerate domestic production across the critical minerals value chain through equity stakes, loan guarantees, and offtake agreements — all aimed at de-risking major projects by supporting infrastructure, capital formation, and market access.
Additional measures include a new $1.5B First and Last Mile Fund for upstream and midstream supply-chain infrastructure, and the consolidation of the existing Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund. The budget also expands the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit to include a broader set of minerals essential to technology, defense, and advanced manufacturing.
To bolster Canada’s position as a reliable supplier of minerals for the global clean-energy transition, the government plans to broaden the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit. Eligible spending would extend beyond manufacturing equipment to include machinery used to extract, process, or recycle critical minerals, along with an expanded list of eligible minerals. Enhanced geoscience work and data initiatives are also planned to support exploration.
A consistent theme across these initiatives is the need to reduce bureaucratic red tape — long a barrier to advancing major Canadian projects. Messina noted that Canada could meet some of the world’s demand for critical minerals and be among leaders if the permitting process was more streamlined. He pointed to Nutrien’s decision to build its new potash shipping terminal in Longview, Washington, instead of Vancouver, B.C., as a clear message: regulatory hurdles in Canada remain too high.
The budget outlines a bold agenda to mobilize C$1T through public-private institutional investment partnerships over five years, including roughly C$315B for infrastructure, C$270B for industrial development, C$210B for research and development, C$130B for housing, C$95B in tax incentives, and C$60B through accelerated depreciation.
“Canadian companies want to stay and do business in Canada, but there has to be economic incentives to do so,” said Messina. “These incentives need to be a mix of both private-public investment and the removal of excessive bureaucracy. Without these incentives, business will have to rely on foreign investment and ultimately offshoring of their businesses outside of Canada.”
He cautioned that portfolio decisions should not swing too heavily based on government policy proposals alone, noting governments change and policies shift depending on realities on the ground.
“While it is always great to have new tools in the tool kit, investors shouldn’t lose sight of the tools that get the majority of the work done,” said Messina. “Key investment priorities, which include having a strong goals-based investment plan and asset allocation framework driven by tried-and-true strategies using public securities are going to be the key to success for most investors.”
