NEWS

From Credit to CRE: Texas Investors Find Opportunities in Evolving Markets and Policy Changes

Key Takeaways

Institutional investors in Texas are capitalizing on credit opportunities as banks pull back from lending due to tighter regulations. With direct lending and distressed debt leading the way, investors are stepping in to provide the liquidity that companies need while securing attractive returns. As mezzanine financing and special situations gain traction for their balanced risk-return profiles, niche strategies like trade finance and asset-based lending have been prominently noted as offering consistent returns. Meanwhile, real estate debt and infrastructure financing remain stable options for those seeking predictable cash flows. For many, it is a waiting game, with investors closely monitoring inflation and Federal Reserve policy, ready to adjust as needed.

On the inflation and fiscal policy front, 88% of investors are maintaining a balanced allocation with only minor tweaks, signaling a cautious approach. Sectors like construction, transportation, and renewable energy are expected to benefit from increased capital flows as the Biden administration pushes for infrastructure and green energy investment. Despite this, most are holding steady, waiting to see how policy changes play out. Liquidity management continues to be a priority, particularly in the bond market where a focus on high-quality, liquid securities has minimized risk. Operational complexities, such as managing illiquid assets and navigating private equity, real estate, and infrastructure investments, are a major challenge for 44% of investors, with strategies like co-investments and secondary market sales helping to unlock liquidity when needed.

Emerging markets remain a mixed bag for Texas investors. Events like the Russia-Ukraine war and instability in Turkey and Argentina have driven many investors to adopt defensive positions, with 43% citing increased caution. Still, some remain focused on the potential for high growth in regions like Southeast Asia, where favorable demographics and economic liberalization are attracting long-term capital. Private market investments are grappling with valuation uncertainties due to macroeconomic conditions, and 22% of investors are actively managing this risk. The commercial real estate (CRE) sector, particularly logistics centers and data centers, presents significant opportunities, benefiting from e-commerce and cloud computing growth all riding the AI bandwagon. Additionally, 33% of investors are targeting distressed properties as stricter lending conditions create value-add and opportunistic investment possibilities.